Baseball margins are narrow. Roughly three in every ten Major League games are decided by a single run, which means the straight winner and the margin of victory often tell two very different stories. The run line exists because of that gap.
The run line is baseball's version of a point spread, and it is almost always set at 1.5 runs. The favourite is listed at −1.5, which means it has to win by two or more runs. The underdog is listed at +1.5: it covers if it wins outright, or if it loses by exactly one run.
Because nobody can score half a run, there is never a push. Every game settles one way or the other.
On the moneyline a strong favourite can be priced very short. Asking that same side to win by two changes the proposition completely, because so many games finish one run apart. That is why a heavy moneyline favourite is often priced near even money on the run line — and why an underdog at +1.5 can be shorter than the favourite's moneyline price.
The moneyline asks who wins. The run line asks by how much — and in baseball, the answer is usually "not by very much".
Home teams bat last. If the home side is already ahead after the top of the ninth, the bottom of the inning is not played. If it wins with a walk-off, the game ends the moment the winning run crosses the plate. Both rules cap the home team's winning margin in exactly the situations where it would otherwise keep adding runs.
The practical effect is that a home favourite at −1.5 has fewer chances to stretch a lead late than a road favourite does. It is one reason run line prices for home and away favourites are not mirror images of each other.
The factors that move a run line are mostly the ones that affect margin rather than just the result:
Some markets offer alternative lines, such as a favourite at −2.5 or an underdog at +2.5. They follow the same logic: the further the line sits from the expected margin, the further the price moves with it. A bigger handicap on the favourite pays more because it asks more of the game.
The First 5 Innings market settles after five complete innings, which isolates the starting pitchers from whatever the bullpens do later. It is often considered alongside the run line when one side clearly has the better starter but the bullpens are closer. The two markets answer different questions, so it helps to know which one you are actually asking.
Every one of these markets is a way to follow a game more closely, not a way to make money. Baseball is played almost every day for six months, which makes pacing matter more than in most sports. Decide your limit before first pitch, and keep to it.
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